Arbeitspapier
Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany
This paper examines the consequences of using "real-time" data for business cycle analysis in Germany based on a novel data set covering quarterly real output data from 1968 to 2001. Real-time output gaps are calculated. They differ considerably from their counterparts based on the most recent data. Moreover, they are not rational forecasts of the final series. The consequences of using real-time data for inflation forecasts, the dynamic interaction of output gaps and inflation, and stylised facts of the business cycle are also addressed. The results suggest that revisions of data and estimates can seriously distort research and policy implications.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: Discussion Paper Series 1 ; No. 2004,11
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
- Subject
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Real-time data
business cycles
output gap
VAR
inflation
Germany
Konjunkturstatistik
Konjunkturforschung
Konjunkturprognose
Wirtschaftspotential
Messung
Zeitreihenanalyse
Deutschland
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Döpke, Jörg
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Deutsche Bundesbank
- (where)
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Frankfurt a. M.
- (when)
-
2004
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Döpke, Jörg
- Deutsche Bundesbank
Time of origin
- 2004
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