Robust growth determinants

Arbeitspapier

This paper investigates the robustness of determinants of economic growth in the presence of model uncertainty, parameter heterogeneity and outliers. The robust model averaging approach introduced in the paper uses a flexible and parsimonious mixture modeling that allows for fat-tailed errors compared to the normal benchmark case. Applying robust model averaging to growth determinants, the paper finds that eight out of eighteen variables found to be significantly related to economic growth by Sala-i-Martin et al. (2004) are sensitive to deviations from benchmark model averaging. For example, the GDP shares of mining or government consumption, are no longer robust or economically significant once deviations from the normal benchmark assumptions are allowed. The paper identifies outlying observations - most notably Botswana - in explaining economic growth in a cross-section of countries.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 3354

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Bayesian Analysis: General ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions ; Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection ; Development Planning and Policy: General ; Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence ; Economywide Country Studies: General
• Thema: determinants of economic growth ; robust model averaging ; heteroscedasticity ; outliers ; mixture models ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Messung ; Bayes-Statistik ; Modell-Spezifikation ; Sozialprodukt ; Welt

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Doppelhofer, Gernot ; Weeks, Melvyn
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (wo): Munich
• (wann): 2011

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/46478
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ