A sentiment-based risk indicator for the Mexican financial sector

Arbeitspapier

We apply text analysis to Twitter messages in Spanish to build a sentiment- based risk index for the financial sector in Mexico. We classify a sample of tweets for the period 2006-2019 to identify messages in response to positive or negative shocks to the Mexican financial sector. We use a voting classifier to aggregate three different classifiers: one based on word polarities from a pre-defined dictionary; one based on a support vector machine; and one based on neural networks. Next, we compare our Twitter sentiment index with existing indicators of financial stress. We find that this novel index captures the impact of sources of financial stress not explicitly encompassed in quantitative risk measures. Finally, we show that a shock in our Twitter sentiment index correlates positively with an increase in financial market risk, stock market volatility, sovereign risk, and foreign exchange rate volatility.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Working Papers ; No. 2021-04

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages ; Behavioral Finance: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets‡
• Subject: Sentiment analysis ; systemic risk ; banks

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Rho, Caterina ; Fernández, Raúl ; Palma, Brenda
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Banco de México
• (where): Ciudad de México
• (when): 2021

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/240713
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET