Challenges and Choices: Modelling New Zealand's Long-term Fiscal Position

Arbeitspapier

This working paper provides further detail on the modelling behind Challenges and Choices – New Zealand's Long-Term Fiscal Statement, published on 29 October 2009. Building on the first Statement of 2006, we construct two main fiscal scenarios over a 40- year horizon. The historic trends scenario allows historic and current spending and revenue settings to interact with changing demography. The sustainable debt scenario applies a fiscal constraint on non-benefit spending so that Crown net debt follows the Government's medium-term fiscal targets. The modelling innovations introduced this time do not alter the basic structure and principles of the Long-term Fiscal Model, but instead provide insights into government spending: public sector productivity growth and the growth of the basket of services each person receives. These innovations enable us to illustrate the effects of tradeoffs between broad spending categories in a constrained fiscal environment. In the 2009 Statement, these policy changes are combined into three possible scenarios for obtaining a sustainable fiscal position. The paper also illustrates the sensitivity of the fiscal position to small changes in the demographic, macroeconomic and fiscal modelling assumptions.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: New Zealand Treasury Working Paper ; No. 10/01

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Fiscal Policy ; National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General ; Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt ; Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
• Thema: Population ; projections ; social expenditure ; fiscal costs ; New Zealand ; Finanzpolitik ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Öffentliche Sozialausgaben ; Neuseeland

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Bell, Matthew ; Blick, Gary ; Parkyn, Oscar ; Rodway, Paul ; Vowles, Polly
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): New Zealand Government, The Treasury
• (wo): Wellington
• (wann): 2010

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/205604
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ