Arbeitspapier
Are they really rational? Assessing professional macro-economic forecasts from the G7-countries
In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the rationality of professional macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze both individual forecasts and average forecasts. We provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for all the G7-counties and four different macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, we present a modification to the structural model which is commonly used to model the forecast errors of fixed event forecasts in the literature. Our results confirm that average forecasts should be used with caution, since even if all individual forecasts are rational the hypothesis of rationality is often rejected by the aggregate forecasts. We find that there are not only large differences in the performance of forecasters across countries but also across different macroeconomic variables; in general, forecasts tend to be biased in situations where forecasters have to learn about large structural shocks or gradual changes in the trend of a variable.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Kiel Working Paper ; No. 1447
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Thema
-
Evaluating forecasts
macroeconomic forecasting
rationality
survey data
fixed-event forecasts
Konjunkturprognose
Aggregation
Bewertung
Rationales Verhalten
Bias
Schätzung
G-7-Staaten
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Dovern, Jonas
Weisser, Johannes
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- (wo)
-
Kiel
- (wann)
-
2008
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Dovern, Jonas
- Weisser, Johannes
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Entstanden
- 2008
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