Belief updating: does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?

Artikel

Bayes' statistical rule remains the status quo for modeling belief updating in both normative and descriptive models of behavior under uncertainty. Some recent research has questioned the use of Bayes' rule in descriptive models of behavior, presenting evidence that people overweight `good news' relative to `bad news' when updating ego-relevant beliefs. In this paper, we present experimental evidence testing whether this `good-news, bad-news' effect is present in a financial decision making context (i.e. a domain that is important for understanding much economic decision making). We find no evidence of asymmetric updating in this domain. In contrast, in our experiment, belief updating is close to the Bayesian benchmark on average. However, we show that this average behavior masks substantial heterogeneity in individual updating behavior. We find no evidence in support of a sizeable subgroup of asymmetric updators.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Journal: Experimental Economics ; ISSN: 1573-6938 ; Volume: 24 ; Year: 2021 ; Issue: 1 ; Pages: 31-58 ; Dordrecht: Springer

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Bayesian Analysis: General ; Design of Experiments: Laboratory, Individual ; Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
• Thema: economic experiments ; Bayes’ rule ; belief updating ; belief measurement ; proper scoring rules ; motivated beliefs

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Barron, Kai
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Springer
• (wo): Dordrecht
• (wann): 2021

Weitere Informationen

• DOI: doi:10.1007/s10683-020-09653-z
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/218847
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ