Arbeitspapier
Professionals' forecast of the inflation gap and its persistence
The purpose of the present paper is to investigate perceived inflation gap persistence using actual data of professional forecasts. We derive the unobserved perceived inflation gap persistence and using a state dependent model we estimate the non-linear persistence coefficient of inflation gap. Our main result is that for GDP deflator inflation, the estimates of persistence largely confirm the results obtained indirectly using a linear model. However, when we look at CPI inflation, we find that there is strong evidence for state-dependence and time variation.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: Cardiff Economics Working Papers ; No. E2015/13
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Monetary Policy
Central Banks and Their Policies
- Subject
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Perceived Inflation Gaps
Professional´s Survey-based Forecasts
State-Dependent Models
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Easaw, Joshy
Heravi, Saeed
Dixon, Huw David
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School
- (where)
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Cardiff
- (when)
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2015
- Handle
- Last update
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10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Easaw, Joshy
- Heravi, Saeed
- Dixon, Huw David
- Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School
Time of origin
- 2015
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