Explaining Inflation-Gap Persistence by a Time-Varying Taylor Rule

Arbeitspapier

In a simple New Keynesian model, we derive a closed form solution for the inflation-gap persistence parameter as a function of the policy weights in the central bank’s Taylor rule. By estimating the time-varying weights that the FED attaches to inflation and the output gap, we show that the empirically observed changes in U.S. inflation-gap persistence during the period 1975 to 2010 can be well explained by changes in the conduct of monetary policy. Our findings are in line with Benati’s (2008) view that inflation persistence should not be considered a structural parameter in the sense of Lucas.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Discussion Paper Series ; No. 521

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Monetary Policy ; Central Banks and Their Policies
• Thema: inflation-gap persistence ; Great Moderation ; monetary policy ; New Keynesian model ; Taylor rule ; Inflation ; Hysterese ; Geldpolitik ; Taylor-Regel ; Neoklassische Synthese ; Schätzung ; USA

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Conrad, Christian ; Eife, Thomas A.
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
• (wo): Heidelberg
• (wann): 2012

Weitere Informationen

• DOI: doi:10.11588/heidok.00013117
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/127336
• URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-opus-131170
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ