A Spatial Perspective on European Integration: Heterogeneous Welfare and Migration Effects from the Single Market and the Brexit

Arbeitspapier

We use a quantitative model to study the implications of European integration for welfare and migration flows across 1,318 regions. The model suggests that an increase of trade barriers to the level of 1957 reduces welfare by about 1-2 percent on average, depending on the presumed trade elasticity. However, remote regions may face initial welfare losses of up to 4 percent causing an estimated migration of about 8 million individuals to the European core. This implies that the dismantling of trade barriers in Europe has led to a more homogeneous spatial distribution of economic activity. With regard to the Brexit, we find moderate welfare losses for the UK of -0.44 percent in the most pessimistic scenario while continental Europe’s welfare declines by 0.18 percent. In the most unfavorable scenario, about 500,000 people would leave the UK in the long run.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 6289

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Trade: General ; Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation ; Economic Integration ; Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes ; Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity ; General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies ; Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics: Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population; Neighborhood Characteristics
• Thema: regional integration ; labor mobility ; spatial inequality

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Henkel, Marcel ; Seidel, Tobias
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (wo): Munich
• (wann): 2016

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/155531
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ