Arbeitspapier

Heterogeneous price and quantity effects of the real estate transfer tax in Germany

Using quarterly data for German counties, we study how housing prices and offers respond to higher transaction costs induced by tax increases. Since 2006, states can set their own tax rates on real estate transfers. Several and substantial tax hikes generate variation across time and states which we exploit in our empirical analysis using an event study design. Our results indicate that prices and offers decrease significantly by 3% and 6% already in the quarter in which the tax increase is announced in press but rise subsequently. Furthermore, we find heterogeneous responses when distinguishing between different types of counties. Housing prices decrease persistently in shrinking counties, while this is at most temporarily the case in growing, central and peripheral counties. This implies that the economic incidence of this tax varies across transactions.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Arbeitspapier ; No. 10/2020

Classification
Wirtschaft
Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General
Taxation and Subsidies: Incidence
State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis
Production Analysis and Firm Location: Government Policy
Subject
Real estate transfer tax
real estate prices
housing market
tax incidence
anticipation effects

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Christofzik, Désirée I.
Feld, Lars P.
Yeter, Mustafa
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung
(where)
Wiesbaden
(when)
2020

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:46 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Christofzik, Désirée I.
  • Feld, Lars P.
  • Yeter, Mustafa
  • Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung

Time of origin

  • 2020

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