Narrative fragmentation and the business cycle

Arbeitspapier

Using a novel rich dataset at the regional level, this paper provides new empirical evidence on the €fiscal transmission mechanism in the Eurozone. Our baseline estimates reveal a government spending relative output multiplier of 2.9, an employment multiplier of 1.9, and a cost per job created of €24,000. Moreover, we €find that a regional €fiscal stimulus leads to a signi€ficant increase in private investment, productivity, durable consumption, and real wages together with a signi€ficant rise in total hours worked driven by changes in the extensive margin (total employment), whereas the intensive margin (hours per worker) barely reacts. We estimate only small regional €fiscal spillovers but detect notable state dependencies. Regional fi€scal multipliers are larger in economic recessions, during €fiscal consolidations, and in the core countries of the Eurozone.

Objekt anzeigen

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series ; No. 401

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Computational Techniques; Simulation Modeling ; Expectations; Speculations ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles
• Thema: Natural Language Processing ; Machine Learning ; Narrative Economics

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Bertsch, Christoph ; Hull, Isaiah ; Zhang, Xin
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Sveriges Riksbank
• (wo): Stockholm
• (wann): 2021

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/232604