Arbeitspapier

Economic effects of climate change in developing countries: Economy-wide and regional analysis for Ethiopia

Quantifying the economic effects of climate change is a crucial step for planning adaptation in developing countries. This study assesses the economy-wide and regional effects of climate change induced productivity and labor supply shocks in agriculture in Ethiopia. The study shows, in worst case scenario, the effects on national GDP may add up to -8% with uneven regional effects ranging from -10% in agrarian regions (e.g. Amhara) to +2.5% in urbanized regions (e.g. Addis Ababa). Cost-free exogenous structural change scenarios in labor markets and transaction costs may offset about 20-30% of the ripple effects of climate change. Therefore, the ongoing structural transformation in the country may underpin the resilience of the economy to climate change. Nevertheless, given the role of agriculture in the current economic structure of the country and the potency of biophysical impacts of climate change, adaptation in the sector is indispensable. Otherwise, climate change may hamper economic progress of the country, and make rural livelihood unpredictable.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: CEPIE Working Paper ; No. 10/17

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Computable General Equilibrium Models
Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
Agricultural Labor Markets
Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
Economywide Country Studies: Africa
Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
Thema
climate change
agriculture
migration
CGE model
Ethiopia

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Yalew, Amsalu W.
Hirte, Georg
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Tscharaktschiew, Stefan
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE)
(wo)
Dresden
(wann)
2017

Handle
URN
urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-227554
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Yalew, Amsalu W.
  • Hirte, Georg
  • Lotze-Campen, Hermann
  • Tscharaktschiew, Stefan
  • Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE)

Entstanden

  • 2017

Ähnliche Objekte (12)