Economic effects of climate change in developing countries: Economy-wide and regional analysis for Ethiopia

Arbeitspapier

Quantifying the economic effects of climate change is a crucial step for planning adaptation in developing countries. This study assesses the economy-wide and regional effects of climate change induced productivity and labor supply shocks in agriculture in Ethiopia. The study shows, in worst case scenario, the effects on national GDP may add up to -8% with uneven regional effects ranging from -10% in agrarian regions (e.g. Amhara) to +2.5% in urbanized regions (e.g. Addis Ababa). Cost-free exogenous structural change scenarios in labor markets and transaction costs may offset about 20-30% of the ripple effects of climate change. Therefore, the ongoing structural transformation in the country may underpin the resilience of the economy to climate change. Nevertheless, given the role of agriculture in the current economic structure of the country and the potency of biophysical impacts of climate change, adaptation in the sector is indispensable. Otherwise, climate change may hamper economic progress of the country, and make rural livelihood unpredictable.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: CEPIE Working Paper ; No. 10/17

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Computable General Equilibrium Models ; Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models ; Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure ; Agricultural Labor Markets ; Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion ; Economywide Country Studies: Africa ; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming ; Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth ; Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes ; General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
• Subject: climate change ; agriculture ; migration ; CGE model ; Ethiopia

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Yalew, Amsalu W. ; Hirte, Georg ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Tscharaktschiew, Stefan
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE)
• (where): Dresden
• (when): 2017

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/163523
• URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-227554
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET