Network linkages to predict bank distress

Arbeitspapier

Building on the literature on systemic risk and financial contagion, the paper introduces estimated network linkages into an early-warning model to predict bank distress among European banks. We use multivariate extreme value theory to estimate equity-based tail-dependence networks, whose links proxy for the markets' view of bank interconnectedness in case of elevated financial stress. The paper finds that early warning models including estimated tail dependencies consistently outperform bank-specific benchmark models with- out networks. The results are robust to variation in model specification and also hold in relation to simpler benchmarks of contagion. Generally, this paper gives direct support for measures of interconnectedness in early-warning models, and moves toward a unified representation of cyclical and cross-sectional dimensions of systemic risk.

Object Details

• ISBN: 978-92-899-1641-7
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 1828

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages ; Bankruptcy; Liquidation ; Quantitative Policy Modeling ; Network Formation and Analysis: Theory
• Subject: bank distress ; bank networks ; systemic risk

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Peltonen, Tuomas A. ; Sarlin, Peter ; Piloiu, Andreea
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): European Central Bank (ECB)
• (where): Frankfurt a. M.
• (when): 2015

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/154261
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET