Arbeitspapier
Estimating the natural rate of unemployment for Ukraine
In this study, we apply the Kalman filter to estimate the set of reduced-form Phillips curves for different types of inflation in Ukraine. Based on the estimated models, we derive a number of series of non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) that provide information about the general trajectory and last tendencies of trend unemployment. To better identify the unemployment trend, we include indicators of long-term unemployment and the Beveridge curve shifts as exogenous variables in the NAIRU equation. Both variables demonstrate a significant impact on NAIRU dynamics. Our estimates show that the Phillips curve slope in Ukraine lies in a standard range of -0.3 to -0.5, with high statistical significance. The median value of estimated NAIRUs was at its lowest at 7.2% at the end of 2008, after which it gradually increased to 9.4% by the end of 2021.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Series: Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper ; No. HEIDWP21-2022
- Klassifikation
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Wirtschaft
Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- Thema
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Phillips curve
unemployment
NAIRU
Kalman filter
Beveridge curve
- Ereignis
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
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Vdovychenko, Artem
- Ereignis
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Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
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Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies
- (wo)
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Geneva
- (wann)
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2022
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
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10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Vdovychenko, Artem
- Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies
Entstanden
- 2022