Arbeitspapier

Estimating the natural rate of unemployment for Ukraine

In this study, we apply the Kalman filter to estimate the set of reduced-form Phillips curves for different types of inflation in Ukraine. Based on the estimated models, we derive a number of series of non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) that provide information about the general trajectory and last tendencies of trend unemployment. To better identify the unemployment trend, we include indicators of long-term unemployment and the Beveridge curve shifts as exogenous variables in the NAIRU equation. Both variables demonstrate a significant impact on NAIRU dynamics. Our estimates show that the Phillips curve slope in Ukraine lies in a standard range of -0.3 to -0.5, with high statistical significance. The median value of estimated NAIRUs was at its lowest at 7.2% at the end of 2008, after which it gradually increased to 9.4% by the end of 2021.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper ; No. HEIDWP21-2022

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Thema
Phillips curve
unemployment
NAIRU
Kalman filter
Beveridge curve

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Vdovychenko, Artem
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies
(wo)
Geneva
(wann)
2022

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Vdovychenko, Artem
  • Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies

Entstanden

  • 2022

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