Estimating the natural rate of unemployment for Ukraine

Arbeitspapier

In this study, we apply the Kalman filter to estimate the set of reduced-form Phillips curves for different types of inflation in Ukraine. Based on the estimated models, we derive a number of series of non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) that provide information about the general trajectory and last tendencies of trend unemployment. To better identify the unemployment trend, we include indicators of long-term unemployment and the Beveridge curve shifts as exogenous variables in the NAIRU equation. Both variables demonstrate a significant impact on NAIRU dynamics. Our estimates show that the Phillips curve slope in Ukraine lies in a standard range of -0.3 to -0.5, with high statistical significance. The median value of estimated NAIRUs was at its lowest at 7.2% at the end of 2008, after which it gradually increased to 9.4% by the end of 2021.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper ; No. HEIDWP21-2022

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
• Subject: Phillips curve ; unemployment ; NAIRU ; Kalman filter ; Beveridge curve

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Vdovychenko, Artem
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies
• (where): Geneva
• (when): 2022

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/278192
• Last update: 13.09.2052, 12:54 PM CEST