Eliciting expectation uncertainty from private households

Arbeitspapier

Recently, much attention has been devoted to the measurement of macroeconomic (expectation) uncertainty and its impact on aggregate economic fuctuations. This paper presents a new qualitative measure of macroeconomic expectation uncertainty based on data from a German online survey of consumer expectations. I document that the survey design works well. Elicited expectation uncertainty is related to data volatility and conventional measures of uncertainty as expected. Its dependency on socioeconomic factors is in line with previous evidence based on quantitative uncertainty measures. The new measure ofers a very efcient way of eliciting expectation uncertainty and can be used to obtain uncertainty measures on many diferent expectations at low cost.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour" ; No. 38

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Expectations; Speculations ; Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
• Subject: macroeconomic expectations ; expectation uncertainty ; density expectations

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Dovern, Jonas
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Humboldt University Berlin
• (where): Berlin
• (when): 2023

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.18452/25859
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/268639
• URN: urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/26650-6
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET