Arbeitspapier
Revolution empirics: predicting the Arab Spring
The paper examines whether the Arab Spring phenomenon was predictable by complete elimination in the dispersion of core demands for better governance, more jobs and stable consumer prices. A methodological innovation of the Generalized Methods of Moments is employed to assess the feasibility and timing of the revolution. The empirical evidence reveals that from a projection date of 2007, the Arab Spring was foreseeable between 2011 and 2012. The paper contributes at the same time to the empirics of predicting revolutions and the scarce literature on modeling the future of socio-economic events. Caveats and cautions are discussed.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: AGDI Working Paper ; No. WP/14/032
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: Africa; Oceania
Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
Development Planning and Policy: General
Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
Comparative Studies of Particular Economies
- Subject
-
Arab Spring
Political Instability
Timing
Economic Growth
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Asongu, Simplice A.
Nwachukwu, Jacinta C.
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
African Governance and Development Institute (AGDI)
- (where)
-
Yaoundé
- (when)
-
2014
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
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ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Asongu, Simplice A.
- Nwachukwu, Jacinta C.
- African Governance and Development Institute (AGDI)
Time of origin
- 2014
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