Arbeitspapier
Revolution empirics: predicting the Arab Spring
The paper examines whether the Arab Spring phenomenon was predictable by complete elimination in the dispersion of core demands for better governance, more jobs and stable consumer prices. A methodological innovation of the Generalized Methods of Moments is employed to assess the feasibility and timing of the revolution. The empirical evidence reveals that from a projection date of 2007, the Arab Spring was foreseeable between 2011 and 2012. The paper contributes at the same time to the empirics of predicting revolutions and the scarce literature on modeling the future of socio-economic events. Caveats and cautions are discussed.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: AGDI Working Paper ; No. WP/14/032
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: Africa; Oceania
Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
Development Planning and Policy: General
Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
Comparative Studies of Particular Economies
- Thema
-
Arab Spring
Political Instability
Timing
Economic Growth
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Asongu, Simplice A.
Nwachukwu, Jacinta C.
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
African Governance and Development Institute (AGDI)
- (wo)
-
Yaoundé
- (wann)
-
2014
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Asongu, Simplice A.
- Nwachukwu, Jacinta C.
- African Governance and Development Institute (AGDI)
Entstanden
- 2014
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
Fighting African Capital Flight: Empirics on Benchmarking Policy Harmonization
Harmonizing IPRs on Software Piracy: Empirics of Trajectories in Africa
New financial development indicators: with a critical contribution to inequality empirics
A note on the long-run neutrality of monetary policy: new empirics
New Empirics of monetary policy dynamics: evidence from the CFA franc zones
On taxation, political accountability and foreign aid: empirics to a celebrated literature
Liberalization and financial sector competition: a critical contribution to the empirics with an African assessment
Fighting Terrorism: Empirics on Policy Harmonization
Does Money Matter in Africa? New Empirics on Long- and Short-run Effects of Monetary Policy on Output and Prices
On the Empirics of Institutions and Quality of Growth: Evidence for Developing Countries
Foreign aid volatility and lifelong learning: demand-side empirics to a textual literature
Globalization and Africa: implications for human development
Fighting African Capital Flight: Empirics on Benchmarking Policy Harmonization
Harmonizing IPRs on Software Piracy: Empirics of Trajectories in Africa
New financial development indicators: with a critical contribution to inequality empirics
A note on the long-run neutrality of monetary policy: new empirics
New Empirics of monetary policy dynamics: evidence from the CFA franc zones
On taxation, political accountability and foreign aid: empirics to a celebrated literature
Liberalization and financial sector competition: a critical contribution to the empirics with an African assessment
Fighting Terrorism: Empirics on Policy Harmonization
Does Money Matter in Africa? New Empirics on Long- and Short-run Effects of Monetary Policy on Output and Prices
On the Empirics of Institutions and Quality of Growth: Evidence for Developing Countries
Foreign aid volatility and lifelong learning: demand-side empirics to a textual literature
Globalization and Africa: implications for human development
Fighting African Capital Flight: Empirics on Benchmarking Policy Harmonization
Harmonizing IPRs on Software Piracy: Empirics of Trajectories in Africa
New financial development indicators: with a critical contribution to inequality empirics
A note on the long-run neutrality of monetary policy: new empirics
New Empirics of monetary policy dynamics: evidence from the CFA franc zones
On taxation, political accountability and foreign aid: empirics to a celebrated literature
Liberalization and financial sector competition: a critical contribution to the empirics with an African assessment
Fighting Terrorism: Empirics on Policy Harmonization
Does Money Matter in Africa? New Empirics on Long- and Short-run Effects of Monetary Policy on Output and Prices
On the Empirics of Institutions and Quality of Growth: Evidence for Developing Countries
Foreign aid volatility and lifelong learning: demand-side empirics to a textual literature