Arbeitspapier
How fast can China grow? The middle kingdom's prospects to 2030
Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it will evolve over the next 15 years. Using a Cobb-Douglas production function, we decompose the growth of trend GDP into those of the capital stock, labour, human capital and total factor productivity (TFP) and then forecast trend output growth out to 2030 using a bottom-up approach based on forecasts that we build for each one of these factors. Our paper distinguishes itself from existing work in that we construct a forecast of Chinese TFP growth based on the aggregation of forecasts of its key determinants. Moreover, our analysis is based on a carefully constructed estimate of the Chinese productive capital stock and a measure of human capital - based on Chinese wage survey data - that better reflects the returns to education in China. Our results suggest that Chinese trend output growth will decelerate from around 7% currently to about 5% by 2030, and are consistent with a gradual rebalancing of the Chinese economy characterized by a decline in the investment rate.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper ; No. 2016-15
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
Macroeconomics: Production
- Subject
-
Development economics
International topics
Potential output
Productivity
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Bailliu, Jeannine N.
Kruger, Mark
Toktamyssov, Argyn
Welbourn, Wheaton
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Bank of Canada
- (where)
-
Ottawa
- (when)
-
2016
- DOI
-
doi:10.34989/swp-2016-15
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Bailliu, Jeannine N.
- Kruger, Mark
- Toktamyssov, Argyn
- Welbourn, Wheaton
- Bank of Canada
Time of origin
- 2016
Other Objects (12)
Canadian non-energy exports: Past performance and future prospects
An update - Canadian non-energy exports: Past performance and future prospects
Identifying asymmetric comovements of international stock market returns
On the existence and fragility of repo markets
Sterilized intervention in emerging-market economies: Trends, costs, and risks
Targeting Inflation from Below - How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?
Revisiting National Border Effects in Foreign Trade in Goods of Canadian Provinces
Optimal monetary policy during endogenous housing-market boom-bust cycles
IMF-supported adjustment programs: Welfare implications and the catalytic effect
On the Welfare Cost of Rare Housing Disasters
Windfall income shocks with finite planning horizons
Welfare effects of commodity price and exchange rate volatilities in a multi-sector small open economy model
Canadian non-energy exports: Past performance and future prospects
An update - Canadian non-energy exports: Past performance and future prospects
Identifying asymmetric comovements of international stock market returns
On the existence and fragility of repo markets
Sterilized intervention in emerging-market economies: Trends, costs, and risks
Targeting Inflation from Below - How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?
Revisiting National Border Effects in Foreign Trade in Goods of Canadian Provinces
Optimal monetary policy during endogenous housing-market boom-bust cycles
IMF-supported adjustment programs: Welfare implications and the catalytic effect
On the Welfare Cost of Rare Housing Disasters
Windfall income shocks with finite planning horizons
Welfare effects of commodity price and exchange rate volatilities in a multi-sector small open economy model
Canadian non-energy exports: Past performance and future prospects
An update - Canadian non-energy exports: Past performance and future prospects
Identifying asymmetric comovements of international stock market returns
On the existence and fragility of repo markets
Sterilized intervention in emerging-market economies: Trends, costs, and risks
Targeting Inflation from Below - How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?
Revisiting National Border Effects in Foreign Trade in Goods of Canadian Provinces
Optimal monetary policy during endogenous housing-market boom-bust cycles
IMF-supported adjustment programs: Welfare implications and the catalytic effect
On the Welfare Cost of Rare Housing Disasters
Windfall income shocks with finite planning horizons