Money as an Indicator in the Euro Zone

Arbeitspapier

This paper attempts to evaluate the information content of money for the forecast of inflation, output, investment and consumption in the euro zone. It considers M1 and M3; a number of modifications to these aggregates is also proposed to enhance their forecast performance. The evaluation employs Granger-causality tests, stability tests and historical out-of-sample forecasts. On balance the information content of money appears to be rather limited. An improvement of the forecast is confined to the real variables and to the second half of the nineties. For the first half of the nineties the forecast performance of money is generally poor.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Kiel Working Paper ; No. 984

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General
• Subject: Euro-Zone ; Geldmengen ; Prognosen ; Konjunkturindikator ; Prognoseverfahren ; Geldmenge ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; Schätzung ; EU-Staaten

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): van Zandweghe, Willem ; Martinez Rico, Felipe ; Gottschalk, Jan
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Kiel Institute of World Economics (IfW)
• (where): Kiel
• (when): 2000

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/17918
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET