Artikel
Professional forecasters' expectations, consistency, and international spillovers
This paper focuses on the expectation formation process of professional forecasters by relying on survey data on forecasts regarding gross domestic product growth, consumer price index inflation and 3-month interest rates for a broad set of countries. We examine the interrelation between macroeconomic forecasts and also the impact of uncertainty on forecasts by allowing for cross-country interdependencies and time variation in the coefficients. We find that professional forecasts are often in line with the Taylor rule and identify significant expectation spillovers from monetary policy in the USA.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Journal: Journal of Forecasting ; ISSN: 1099-131X ; Volume: 39 ; Year: 2020 ; Issue: 7 ; Pages: 1001-1024 ; Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
- Subject
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expectations
forecasts
survey data
uncertainty
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Beckmann, Joscha
Czudaj, Robert L.
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Wiley
- (where)
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Hoboken, NJ
- (when)
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2020
- DOI
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doi:10.1002/for.2675
- Handle
- Last update
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10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Artikel
Associated
- Beckmann, Joscha
- Czudaj, Robert L.
- Wiley
Time of origin
- 2020
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