Arbeitspapier

The NAIRU and informality in the Mexican labor market

The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is not directly observable and the presence of informal workers imposes an additional challenge in its estimation. Countries with large informal sectors, traditional measures might not depict labor slack properly, as it has the wage flexibility needed to incorporate formal workers that cannot find a formal job. In this paper, we present an estimation of the traditional NAIRU for Mexico and an alternative measure that includes informality as an indicator of labor underutilization. We find that both measures of NAIRU and the associated labor market slack indicators follow similar patterns over time. However, the slack estimated with the indicator that includes informality seems to predict inflationary pressures more accurately when the unemployment gap is close to zero.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Working Papers ; No. 2020-09

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Informal Economy; Underground Economy
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Monetary Policy
Thema
Unemployment
Informality
NAIRU
Business cycle

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Aguilar-Argaez, Ana María
Alcaraz, Carlo
Ramírez, Claudia
Rodríguez-Pérez, Cid Alonso
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Banco de México
(wo)
Ciudad de México
(wann)
2020

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Aguilar-Argaez, Ana María
  • Alcaraz, Carlo
  • Ramírez, Claudia
  • Rodríguez-Pérez, Cid Alonso
  • Banco de México

Entstanden

  • 2020

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