Lifetime Memories of Inflation: Evidence from Surveys and the Lab

Arbeitspapier

We study how individuals' memories of inflation shape their expectations about future inflation using both surveys and laboratory experiments. Recalling having lived through prior disinflations has pronounced effects on how long-lived people expect the current inflation episode to last. Information treatments in which we show people prior disinflationary experiences similarly strongly reduce inflation expectations of individuals on average and are often recalled as inflation memories months later. We also show that when people try to forecast inflation in the lab, the inflation dynamics in the game can affect their beliefs much like the inflation experienced in real life. Methodologically, we compare and contrast surveys and lab experiments and discuss the pros and cons of each method, emphasizing the general consistency across the two methodologies.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: IZA Discussion Papers ; No. 16670

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft
• Subject: inflation experience ; experiments ; surveys ; randomized control trial

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Salle, Isabelle ; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy ; Coibion, Olivier
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
• (where): Bonn
• (when): 2023

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/282797
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET