A new approach to assess inflation expectations anchoring using strategic surveys

Arbeitspapier

We propose a new approach to assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations using "strategic surveys". Namely, we measure households' revisions in long-run inflation expectations after they are presented with different economic scenarios. A key advantage of this approach is that it provides a causal interpretation in terms of how inflation events affect long-run inflation expectations. We implement the method in the summer of 2019 and the spring-summer of 2021 when the anchoring of long-run inflation expectations was in question. We find that the risk of unanchoring of expectations was reasonably low in both periods, and that long-run inflation expectations were essentially as well anchored in August 2021 as in July 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Staff Report ; No. 1007

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis ; Expectations; Speculations ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Monetary Policy
• Subject: inflation ; expectations ; anchoring ; strategic surveys

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Armantier, Olivier ; Sbordone, Argia M. ; Topa, Giorgio ; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert ; Williams, John C.
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• (where): New York, NY
• (when): 2022

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/262057
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET