Assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations

Arbeitspapier

This paper proposes an ESTAR modeling framework to analyze the anchoring of inflation expectations. Anchoring criteria are empirical estimates of a market implied inflation target as well as the strength of the anchor that holds expectations at the target. Results from daily financial market expectations in the United States, European Monetary Union, United Kingdom and Sweden indicate: First, shorter-term expectations are better anchored than longer-term expectations. Second, expectations are best anchored in the EU, followed by US, Sweden and UK. Third, during the crisis market implied targets mostly decline while the strength of the anchor remains mostly unaffected.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: SFB 649 Discussion Paper ; No. 2012-022

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Monetary Policy ; Central Banks and Their Policies ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
• Thema: monetary policy ; anchoring ; inflation expectations ; break even inflation rates ; ESTAR model ; Inflationserwartung ; Prospect Theory ; Bias ; Schätzung ; USA ; Eurozone ; Großbritannien ; Schweden

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Strohsal, Till ; Winkelmann, Lars
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Humboldt University of Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649 - Economic Risk
• (wo): Berlin
• (wann): 2012

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/56667
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ