GDP Data Revisions and Forward-Looking Monetary Policy in Switzerland

Arbeitspapier

This paper analyzes forward-looking rules for Swiss monetary policy in a small structural VAR model consisting of four variables taking into account data revisions for GDP. First, the paper develops an analytical method to analyze the effect of data revision errors in GDP on the ex ante or conditional inflation-output-growth volatility trade-off and applies it to Swiss data. Second, the effects of different targets in a forward-looking monetary policy on ex post or unconditional volatility of inflation and output growth is explored by a simulation exercise. In general, the results obtained suggest that focusing monetary policy on GDP growth instead on inflation may lead to an inefficient policy with both increased medium term inflation and GDP growth volatility in the presence of GDP data revisions.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: WWZ Discussion Paper ; No. 2005/05

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Monetary Policy ; Central Banks and Their Policies
• Thema: Structural VAR ; forward-looking monetary policy ; efficiency frontier ; GDP data revisions

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Jordan, Thomas J. ; Kugler, Peter ; Lenz, Carlos ; Savioz, Marcel R.
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): University of Basel, Center of Business and Economics (WWZ)
• (wo): Basel
• (wann): 2005

Weitere Informationen

• DOI: doi:10.5451/unibas-ep61261
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/123351
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ