Measurement errors in GDP and forward-looking monetary policy: The Swiss case

Arbeitspapier

This paper analyzes forward-looking rules for Swiss monetary policy in a small structural VAR consisting of four variables. First, the paper looks at the ex ante inflation-output-growth volatility trade-off for a forward-looking policy aiming at a convex combination of a strict inflation and output growth targeting rule implied by this SVAR model. Thereby the paper introduces a new analytical method. Second, the paper considers the effect of measurement errors in GDP on this inflation-output-growth volatility trade-off. Third, the paper works at the impact of changing beliefs about the potential growth rate on the variability of output growth and inflation. Finally the effects of different targets in a forward-looking monetary policy on ex post or unconditional volatility of inflation and output growth is explored by a simulation exercise.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Discussion Paper Series 1 ; No. 2004,31

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Monetary Policy
• Thema: Structural VAR ; forward-looking monetary policy ; efficiency frontier ; GDP measurement errors ; Geldpolitik ; Sozialprodukt ; Statistischer Fehler ; VAR-Modell ; Schweiz

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Kugler, Peter ; Jordan, Thomas J. ; Lenz, Carlos ; Savioz, Marcel R.
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Deutsche Bundesbank
• (wo): Frankfurt a. M.
• (wann): 2004

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19498
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ