Arbeitspapier

A farewell to critical junctures: Sorting out long-run causality of income and democracy

We consider the empirical relevance of two opposing hypotheses on the causality between income and democracy: The Democratic Transition hypothesis claims that rising incomes cause a transition to democracy, whereas the Critical Junctures hypothesis denies this causal relation. Our empirical strategy is motivated by Unified Growth Theory, which hypothesizes that the present international income differences have roots in the prehistoric past. Thus, we use prehistoric measures of biogeography as instruments for modern income levels, and find a large long-run causal effect of income on the degree of democracy. This result rejects the Critical Junctures hypothesis, which is an important part of the Primacy of Institutions view.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Kiel Working Paper ; No. 1410

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
History of Economic Thought since 1925: Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary; Austrian; Stockholm School
Thema
Democracy
Unified growth theory
Biogeography
Long-run growth
Wirtschaftswachstum
Wachstumstheorie
Demokratisierung
Evolutionsökonomik
Ökonomische Theorie der Demokratie

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Gundlach, Erich
Paldam, Martin
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
(wo)
Kiel
(wann)
2008

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ

Datenpartner

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Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Gundlach, Erich
  • Paldam, Martin
  • Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)

Entstanden

  • 2008

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