What drives business cycles and international trade in emerging market economies?

Arbeitspapier

This paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in explaining business cycle and international trade developments in fifteen emerging market economies. Results from signrestricted VARs show that developments in real output, inflation, real exchange rates and international trade variables are dominated by domestic shocks. External shocks on average explain a fraction of no more than 10% of the variation in the endogenous variables considered. Moreover, real imports fail to display a cross-regional pattern, while technology shocks appear to be the disturbances playing a somewhat more important role in explaining consumer prices developments. Consumer prices and – depending on the disturbance considered – real imports are the variables showing larger impulse responses to unit shocks.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 730

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Open Economy Macroeconomics
• Subject: business cycles ; emerging markets ; international trade ; structural shocks ; Konjunktur ; Internationale Wirtschaft ; Schock ; Schwellenländer

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Sánchez, Marcelo
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): European Central Bank (ECB)
• (where): Frankfurt a. M.
• (when): 2007

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/153164
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET