What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies

Arbeitspapier

We analyze the importance of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil over the last two decades. Using a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model that allows us to distinguish between different groups of countries, we find that demand from emerging economies (most notably from Asian countries) is more than twice as important as demand from developed countries in accounting for the fluctuations in the real price of oil and in oil production. Furthermore, we find that different geographical regions respond differently to oil supply shocks and oilspecific demand shocks that drive up oil prices, with Europe and North America being more negatively affected than emerging economies in Asia and South America. We demonstrate that this heterogeneity in responses is not only attributable to differences in energy intensity in production across regions but also to degree of openness and the investment share in GDP.

Angaben zum Objekt

• ISBN: 978-82-7553-692-9
• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Working Paper ; No. 2012/11

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Open Economy Macroeconomics
• Thema: FAVAR ; factor augmented vector autoregressions ; oil prices ; emerging and developed countries ; demand and supply shocks

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Aastveit, Knut Are ; Bjørnland, Hilde C. ; Thorsrud, Leif Anders
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Norges Bank
• (wo): Oslo
• (wann): 2012

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/210010
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ