Arbeitspapier
Oil price drivers, geopolitical uncertainty and oil exporters' currencies
Empirical relationships between crude oil prices and exchange rates of oil exporting countries tend to vary over time. I use econometric models of the norwegian and canadian nominal exchange rates to investigate whether such time-variation could reflect shifts in the key oil price drivers over time. Results suggest that demand- and supply-driven oil price increases strengthen these currencies to different extents. In contrast, heightened geopolitical uncertainty and associated oil price increases go together with a weakening of oil exporters' currencies. The latter result may explain coincidences of higher oil prices and a weakening of oil exporters' currencies.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- ISBN
-
978-82-8379-112-9
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Paper ; No. 15/2019
Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Foreign Exchange
Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Model Construction and Estimation
Foreign Exchange
Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Model Construction and Estimation
Thema
Exchange rates
commodity currencies
oil prices
uncertainty
commodity currencies
oil prices
uncertainty
Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Akram, Qaisar Farooq
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Norges Bank
(wo)
Oslo
(wann)
2019
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
20.09.2024, 08:21 MESZ
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Akram, Qaisar Farooq
- Norges Bank
Entstanden
- 2019
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
When Does the Oil Price Affect the Norwegian Exchange Rate?
PPP in the Medium Run Despite Oil Shocks: The Case of Norway
PPP Despite Real Shocks: An Empirical Analysis of the Norwegian Real Exchange Rate
Forecasting Commodity Currencies: The Role of Fundamentals with Short-Lived Predictive Content
Commodity Prices, Interest Rates and the Dollar
Climate risk and commodity currencies
Empirical Modelling of Norwegian Import Prices
Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: To Respond or Not?
Norges Bank's BEER Models for the Norwegian Effective Exchange Rate
Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Booms in an Oil Exporting Country
Testing for a Time-Varying Price-Cost Markup in the Euro Area Inflation Process
Detecting Imbalances in House Prices: What Goes up Must Come Down?
When Does the Oil Price Affect the Norwegian Exchange Rate?
PPP in the Medium Run Despite Oil Shocks: The Case of Norway
PPP Despite Real Shocks: An Empirical Analysis of the Norwegian Real Exchange Rate
Forecasting Commodity Currencies: The Role of Fundamentals with Short-Lived Predictive Content
Commodity Prices, Interest Rates and the Dollar
Climate risk and commodity currencies
Empirical Modelling of Norwegian Import Prices
Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: To Respond or Not?
Norges Bank's BEER Models for the Norwegian Effective Exchange Rate
Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Booms in an Oil Exporting Country
Testing for a Time-Varying Price-Cost Markup in the Euro Area Inflation Process
Detecting Imbalances in House Prices: What Goes up Must Come Down?
When Does the Oil Price Affect the Norwegian Exchange Rate?
PPP in the Medium Run Despite Oil Shocks: The Case of Norway
PPP Despite Real Shocks: An Empirical Analysis of the Norwegian Real Exchange Rate
Forecasting Commodity Currencies: The Role of Fundamentals with Short-Lived Predictive Content
Commodity Prices, Interest Rates and the Dollar
Climate risk and commodity currencies
Empirical Modelling of Norwegian Import Prices
Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: To Respond or Not?
Norges Bank's BEER Models for the Norwegian Effective Exchange Rate
Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Booms in an Oil Exporting Country
Testing for a Time-Varying Price-Cost Markup in the Euro Area Inflation Process