Arbeitspapier
Oil and Macroeconomic (In)Stability
We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or fewer oil price shocks did not play a major role in explaining the Great Moderation. Instead oil price shocks are recurrent sources of economic fluctuations. The most important factor reducing overall variability is a decline in the volatility of structural macroeconomic shocks. A change to a more responsive (hawkish) monetary policy regime also played a role.
- ISBN
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978-82-7553-934-0
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: Working Paper ; No. 12/2016
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Bayesian Analysis: General
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems
Energy and the Macroeconomy
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Bjørnland, Hilde C.
Larsen, Vegard Høghaug
Maih, Junior
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Norges Bank
- (where)
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Oslo
- (when)
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2016
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Bjørnland, Hilde C.
- Larsen, Vegard Høghaug
- Maih, Junior
- Norges Bank
Time of origin
- 2016
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