Arbeitspapier

Exchange rate risks and asset prices in a small open economy

The paper proposes a multi-factor international asset pricing model in which the exchange rate is allowed to be co-determined by a risk factor imperfectly correlated to other priced risks in the economy. The significance of this factor can be established as long as one is able to observe a proxy for the foreign cash order flow. Then, the asset pricing model is decomposed into the standard ICCAPM no-arbitrage setup characterized by a pricing kernel, in which, however, the “autarky” exchange rate is unobserved, and an additional equation that links this autarchic currency price with the FX order flow. The model is put in the state space form. The unobserved variables span the macroeconomic risk factors with an impact on the asset markets and determine the dynamics of the pricing kernel, the autarchic exchange rate and the FX order flow. A comparison of models allowing for an independent OF risk factor with a restricted one, where the forex order flow plays no role, should disclose the existence of a “nonfundamental” source of a systematic divergence of the observed and the autarchic (i.e. fundamental) FX returns. The model is calibrated and tested on the Czech koruna/euro exchange rate in a setting with seven Czech and euro area asset returns.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 314

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Foreign Exchange
Open Economy Macroeconomics
Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
International Financial Markets
Thema
exchange rate
latent risk
order flow
pricing kernel
state space

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Derviz, Alexis
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
European Central Bank (ECB)
(wo)
Frankfurt a. M.
(wann)
2004

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Derviz, Alexis
  • European Central Bank (ECB)

Entstanden

  • 2004

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