Arbeitspapier

Assessing predetermined expectations in the standard sticky-price model: a Bayesian approach

This paper analyses the empirical performance of a New Keynesian stickyprice model with delayed effects of monetary impulses on inflation and output for the German pre-EMU economy. The model is augmented with rule-ofthumb behaviour in consumption and price setting. Using recently developed Bayesian estimation techniques, endogenous persistence is found to play a dominant role in consumption whereas forward-looking behaviour is greater for inflation. The model’s dynamics following a monetary shock and a preference shock are comparable to those of an identified VAR model.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 621

Classification
Wirtschaft
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
Monetary Policy
Model Construction and Estimation
Subject
Bayesian estimation
DSGE-Model
identified VAR
predetermined expectations
Allgemeines Gleichgewicht
Stochastisches Wachstumsmodell
Preisrigidität
VAR-Modell
Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung
Theorie
Deutschland

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Welz, Peter
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
European Central Bank (ECB)
(where)
Frankfurt a. M.
(when)
2006

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Welz, Peter
  • European Central Bank (ECB)

Time of origin

  • 2006

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