Price, sales, and the business cycle: a time series principal component analysis

Arbeitspapier

The main contribution of this work consist on studying sales behaviour and their relationship with local market conditions like labor market indicators through a time series principal component analysis. We study the correlation structure of a large database on prices and found that all product sectors share a common correlation structure and the highest correlation and significance is achieved between employment variation and the first principal component, mostly in the second week of the following month. Sales or promotions, are a channel for price exibility because firms can use them to change effective prices keeping sticky reference prices. We use a rich database of retail prices from Uruguay to characterize prices' exibility, the behavior of sales, and their relationship with local market conditions like labor market indicators. Finally, we find a positive and significant relationship between sales and unemployment and perform a time series principal component analysis to study these relationships.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: GLO Discussion Paper ; No. 735

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Classification Methods; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Models
• Subject: price rigidity ; sales ; unemployment ; principal component analysis

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Borraz, Fernando ; Livan, Giacomo ; Rodríguez-Martínez, Anahí ; Picardo, Pablo
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Global Labor Organization (GLO)
• (where): Essen
• (when): 2020

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/227120
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET