Arbeitspapier
Model Specification and Inflation Forecast Uncertainty
Three classes of inflation models are discussed: Standard Phillips curves, New Keynesian Phillips curves and Incomplete Competition models. Their relative merits in explaining and forecasting inflation are investigated theoretically and empirically. We establish that Standard Phillips-curve forecasts are robust to types of structural breaks that harm the Incomplete Competion model forecasts, but exaggerates forecast uncertainty in periods with no breaks. As the potential biases in after-break forecast errors for the Incomplete Competition model can be remedied by intercept corrections, it offers the best prospect of successful inflation forecasting.
- ISBN
-
82-7553-163-2
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Arbeidsnotat ; No. 2000/6
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Model Construction and Estimation
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Monetary Policy
- Thema
-
monetary policy
inflation targeting
wages and prices
model specification
encompassing
model uncertainty
forecasting
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Bårdsen, Gunnar
Jansen, Eilev S.
Nymoen, Ragnar
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Norges Bank
- (wo)
-
Oslo
- (wann)
-
2001
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Bårdsen, Gunnar
- Jansen, Eilev S.
- Nymoen, Ragnar
- Norges Bank
Entstanden
- 2001
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