Arbeitspapier
Modelling Inflation in the Euro Area
The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation equation of the Area Wide model (AWM) - cf. Fagan, Henry and Mestre (2001) - and estimated versions of the (single equation) P* model and a hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve. The evidence from these comparisons does not invite decisive conclusions. There is, however, some support in favour of the (reduced form) AWM inflation equation. It is the only model that encompasses a general unrestricted model and it forecast encompasses the competitors when tested on 20 quarters of one step ahead forecasts.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- ISBN
-
82-7553-250-7
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Paper ; No. 2004/10
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
P*-model
New Keynesian Phillips curve
inflation
incomplete competition model
model evaluation
forecast encompassing
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
20.09.2024, 08:22 MESZ
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Jansen, Eilev S.
- Norges Bank
Entstanden
- 2004
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