Artikel
The predictive power of the user cost spread for economic recession in China and the US
The predictive power of the yield curve slope, or the yield spread is well established in the United States (US) and European Union (EU) countries since 1998. However, there exists a gap in the literature on the predictive power of the yield spread on the Chinese economy. This paper provides a different leading recession indicator using the Chinese and US economy as comparative examples: the user cost spread, being the difference of the opportunity costs of holding government securities of different maturities. We argue that the user cost spread, based on the Divisia monetary aggregate data like the ones produced by the Center for Financial Stability, provides improved predictive ability and a better intuitive explanation based on changes in the user cost price of holding bonds.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Journal: International Journal of Financial Studies ; ISSN: 2227-7072 ; Volume: 7 ; Year: 2019 ; Issue: 2 ; Pages: 1-12 ; Basel: MDPI
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General
- Thema
-
Divisia monetary aggregates
user cost spread
recession
China
yield spread
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Chang, Dongfeng
Mattson, Ryan S.
Tang, Biyan
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
MDPI
- (wo)
-
Basel
- (wann)
-
2019
- DOI
-
doi:10.3390/ijfs7020034
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Artikel
Beteiligte
- Chang, Dongfeng
- Mattson, Ryan S.
- Tang, Biyan
- MDPI
Entstanden
- 2019
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