Arbeitspapier
Unconventional monetary policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the macroeconomic effects of a spread compression at the zero lower bound
We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007-2009 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. We identify a 'pure' spread shock defined as a shock that leaves the policy rate unchanged, which allows us to characterize the macroeconomic consequences of a decline in the yield spread induced by central banks' asset purchases within an environment in which the policy rate is constrained by the effective zero lower bound. Two key findings stand out. First, compressions in the long-term yield spread exert a powerful effect on both output growth and inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the Federal Reserve's and the Bank of England's asset purchase programs on long-term yield spreads, our counterfactual simulations suggest that U.S. and U.K. unconventional monetary policy actions have averted significant risks both of deflation and of output collapses comparable to those that took place during the Great Depression.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Bank of Canada Working Paper ; No. 2012-21
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Bayesian Analysis: General
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Monetary Policy
Central Banks and Their Policies
- Thema
-
Monetary policy framework
Interest rates
Econometric and statistical methods
Transmission of monetary policy
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Baumeister, Christiane
Benati, Luca
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Bank of Canada
- (wo)
-
Ottawa
- (wann)
-
2012
- DOI
-
doi:10.34989/swp-2012-21
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Baumeister, Christiane
- Benati, Luca
- Bank of Canada
Entstanden
- 2012
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