Uncertainty and the geography of the Great Recession

Arbeitspapier

We create a state-level measure of economic and police uncertainty during the 2007-2009 recession. Despite claims in the literature, the variation in this uncertainty measure matches the cross-sectional distribution of unemployment outcomes in this period. This relationship is robust to numerous controls for other determinants of labor market outcomes and produces a within-state pattern of effects across industries, occupations, and individuals that is consistent with standard "wait-and-see" models of firm behavior under uncertainty. Using preexisting state institutions that amplified uncertainty, we find evidence that this type of local uncertainty played a causal role in increasing unemployment. Together, these results suggest that increased uncertainty contributed to the severity of the Great Recession.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: AEI Economics Working Paper ; No. 2013-05

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft
• Thema: unemployment ; Great Recession ; economics

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Veuger, Stan ; Shoag, Daniel
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): American Enterprise Institute (AEI)
• (wo): Washington, DC
• (wann): 2013

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/280512
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ