Arbeitspapier
Uncertainty and the Great Recession
Has heightened uncertainty been a major contributor to the Great Recession and the slow recovery in the U.S.? To answer this question, we identify exogenous changes in six uncertainty proxies and quantify their contributions to GDP growth and the unemployment rate. Our results are threefold. First, only a minor part of the rise in uncertainty measures during the Great Recession was driven by exogenous uncertainty shocks. Second, while increased uncertainty explains less than one percentage point of the drop in GDP, macroeconomic uncertainty shocks increased the unemployment rate by up to 0.7 percentage points in 2010 and 2011. Third, economic policy uncertainty had only minor effects on real activity.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Arbeitspapier ; No. 04/2014
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- Thema
-
Uncertainty Shocks
Structural VAR
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Born, Benjamin
Breuer, Sebastian
Elstner, Steffen
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung
- (wo)
-
Wiesbaden
- (wann)
-
2014
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Born, Benjamin
- Breuer, Sebastian
- Elstner, Steffen
- Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung
Entstanden
- 2014
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