Switching-track after the Great Recession

Arbeitspapier

We propose a theoretical framework to reconcile episodes of V-shaped and L-shaped recovery, en- compassing the behaviour of the U.S. economy before and after the Great Recession. In a DSGE model with endogenous growth, negative demand shocks destroy productive capacity, moving GDP to a lower trajectory. A Taylor rule policy designed to reduce the output gap may counterbal- ance the shocks, preventing the destruction of economic capacity and inducing a V-shaped recovery. However, when shocks are deep and persistent enough, like during the Great Recession, they call for a downward revision of potential output measures, the so-called switching-track, weakening the recovering role of monetary policy and inducing an L-shaped recovery. When calibrated to the U.S. economy, the model replicates well the L-shaped recovery and switching-track that followed the Great Recession, as well as the V-shaped recoveries that followed the oil shock recessions.

Object Details

• ISBN: 978-92-899-4819-7
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 2596

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; General Aggregative Models: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian ; Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models ; Monetary Policy
• Subject: Economic Recovery ; Endogenous Growth ; Supply Destruction Prevention ; Economic Capacity ; Monetary Policy

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Vinci, Francesca ; Licandro, Omar
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): European Central Bank (ECB)
• (where): Frankfurt a. M.
• (when): 2021

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.2866/023527
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/246173
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET