Arbeitspapier
Do Experts incorporate Statistical Model Forecasts and should they?
Experts can rely on statistical model forecasts when creating their own forecasts. Usually it is not known what experts actually do. In this paper we focus on three questions, which we try to answer given the availability of expert forecasts and model forecasts. First, is the expert forecast related to the model forecast and how? Second, how is this potential relation influenced by other factors? Third, how does this relation influence forecast accuracy? We propose a new and innovative two-level Hierarchical Bayes model to answer these questions. We apply our proposed methodology to a large data set of forecasts and realizations of SKU-level sales data from a pharmaceutical company. We find that expert forecasts can depend on model forecasts in a variety of ways. Average sales levels, sales volatility, and the forecast horizon influence this dependence. We also demonstrate that theoretical implications of expert behavior on forecast accuracy are reflected in the empirical data.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. 11-141/4
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Bayesian Analysis: General
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
- Thema
-
model forecasts
expert forecasts
forecast adjustment
Bayesian analysis
endogeneity
Pharmazeutisches Produkt
Absatz
Prognoseverfahren
Sachverständige
Vergleich
Bayes-Statistik
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Legerstee, Rianne
Franses, Philip Hans
Paap, Richard
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Tinbergen Institute
- (wo)
-
Amsterdam and Rotterdam
- (wann)
-
2011
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Legerstee, Rianne
- Franses, Philip Hans
- Paap, Richard
- Tinbergen Institute
Entstanden
- 2011
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