Arbeitspapier
Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States
We examine whether German state governments manipulated fiscal forecasts before elections. Our data set includes three fiscal measures over the period 1980-2014. The results do not show that electoral motives influenced fiscal forecasts in West German states. By contrast, East German state governments underestimated spending in pre-election years (compared to other years) by about 0.20 percent of GDP, tax revenues by about 0.36 percent of GDP, and net lending by 0.30 percent of GDP. Predicting low levels of spending and tax revenues, East German state governments thus underestimated the size of government in pre-election years.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 6310
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Fiscal Policy
- Subject
-
fiscal forecasts
electoral cycles
East and West Germany
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Kauder, Björn
Potrafke, Niklas
Schinke, Christoph
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
- (where)
-
Munich
- (when)
-
2017
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET
Data provider
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ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Kauder, Björn
- Potrafke, Niklas
- Schinke, Christoph
- Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
Time of origin
- 2017
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