Arbeitspapier
Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States
We examine whether German state governments manipulated fiscal forecasts before elections. Our data set includes three fiscal measures over the period 1980-2014. The results do not show that electoral motives influenced fiscal forecasts in West German states. By contrast, East German state governments underestimated spending in pre-election years (compared to other years) by about 0.20 percent of GDP, tax revenues by about 0.36 percent of GDP, and net lending by 0.30 percent of GDP. Predicting low levels of spending and tax revenues, East German state governments thus underestimated the size of government in pre-election years.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 6310
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Fiscal Policy
- Thema
-
fiscal forecasts
electoral cycles
East and West Germany
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Kauder, Björn
Potrafke, Niklas
Schinke, Christoph
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
- (wo)
-
Munich
- (wann)
-
2017
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Kauder, Björn
- Potrafke, Niklas
- Schinke, Christoph
- Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
Entstanden
- 2017
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
The Economic Consequences of Fiscal Rules
Labor market deregulation and globalization: empirical evidence from OECD countries
Fiscal performance of minority governments: New empirical evidence for OECD countries
Fiscal Performance of Minority Governments: New Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries
Fiscal Transfers and Fiscal Sustainability
Fiscal Equalization Schemes and Fiscal Sustainability
Fiscal equalization schemes and fiscal sustainability
Government Ideology and Economic Policy-Making in the United States
Fiscal Rules: Historical, Modern, and Sub-National Growth Effects
Ideologically-charged terminology: austerity, fiscal consolidation, and sustainable governance
Government Ideology and Tuition Fee Policy: Evidence from the German States
Government ideology and tuition fee policy: Evidence from the German states
The Economic Consequences of Fiscal Rules
Labor market deregulation and globalization: empirical evidence from OECD countries
Fiscal performance of minority governments: New empirical evidence for OECD countries
Fiscal Performance of Minority Governments: New Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries
Fiscal Transfers and Fiscal Sustainability
Fiscal Equalization Schemes and Fiscal Sustainability
Fiscal equalization schemes and fiscal sustainability
Government Ideology and Economic Policy-Making in the United States
Fiscal Rules: Historical, Modern, and Sub-National Growth Effects
Ideologically-charged terminology: austerity, fiscal consolidation, and sustainable governance
Government Ideology and Tuition Fee Policy: Evidence from the German States
Government ideology and tuition fee policy: Evidence from the German states
The Economic Consequences of Fiscal Rules
Labor market deregulation and globalization: empirical evidence from OECD countries
Fiscal performance of minority governments: New empirical evidence for OECD countries
Fiscal Performance of Minority Governments: New Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries
Fiscal Transfers and Fiscal Sustainability
Fiscal Equalization Schemes and Fiscal Sustainability
Fiscal equalization schemes and fiscal sustainability
Government Ideology and Economic Policy-Making in the United States
Fiscal Rules: Historical, Modern, and Sub-National Growth Effects
Ideologically-charged terminology: austerity, fiscal consolidation, and sustainable governance
Government Ideology and Tuition Fee Policy: Evidence from the German States