Arbeitspapier
Prediction markets for economic forecasting
Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by economic forecasters. We show that prediction markets have a number of attractive features: they quickly incorporate new information, are largely efficient, and impervious to manipulation. Moreover, markets generally exhibit lower statistical errors than professional forecasters and polls. Finally, we show how markets can be used to both uncover the economic model behind forecasts, as well as test existing economic models.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 3884
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Econometric Modeling: General
Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- Subject
-
prediction markets
forecasting
Wirtschaftsprognose
Prognoseverfahren
Börsenspiel
Theorie
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Snowberg, Erik
Wolfers, Justin
Zitzewitz, Eric
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
- (where)
-
Munich
- (when)
-
2012
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Snowberg, Erik
- Wolfers, Justin
- Zitzewitz, Eric
- Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
Time of origin
- 2012
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