Arbeitspapier
Prediction markets in theory and practice
Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as information markets, idea futures or event futures, are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes the recent literature on prediction markets, highlighting both theoretical contributions that emphasize the possibility that these markets efficiently aggregate disperse information, and the lessons from empirical applications which show that market-generated forecasts typically outperform most moderately sophisticated benchmarks. Along the way, we highlight areas ripe for future research.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: IZA Discussion Papers ; No. 1991
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- Subject
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prediction markets
information markets
information aggregation
Prognose
Spekulation
Termingeschäft
USA
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Wolfers, Justin
Zitzewitz, Eric
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
- (where)
-
Bonn
- (when)
-
2006
- Handle
- Last update
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10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Wolfers, Justin
- Zitzewitz, Eric
- Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Time of origin
- 2006
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