Arbeitspapier

Climate Policy Beyond Kyoto: Quo Vadis? A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Based on Expert Judgements

Despite of the apparent failure of the Kyoto Protocol with respect to environmental effectiveness, it has established a broad international mechanism that might be able to provide a global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions during a second commitment period. In this paper we investigate the likely future of post-Kyoto policies. Our primary objective is to identify policy-relevant abatement scenarios and to quantify the associated economic implications across major world regions. Based on a cross-impact analysis we first evaluate an expert poll to select the most likely post-Kyoto climate policy scenarios. We then use a computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic implications of these key scenarios. We find that post-Kyoto agreements are likely to cover only small reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions with abatement duties predominantly assigned to the industrialized countries while developing countries do not make any commitments, but can sell emission abatement to the industrialized world. Equity rules to allocate abatement duties are mainly based on the sovereignty principle or ability-to-pay. Global adjustment costs arising from post-Kyoto policies are very moderate but fuel exporting countries are likely to face quite considerable costs because of adverse terms-of-trade effects on fossil fuel markets.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: ZEW Discussion Papers ; No. 03-09

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
Renewable Resources and Conservation: Water
Renewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and Supply; Prices
Thema
climate policy
cross-impact analysis
computable general equilibrium modeling
Klimaschutz
Umweltabkommen
Internationale Umweltpolitik
Szenario-Technik
Wirtschaftspolitische Wirkungsanalyse
Allgemeines Gleichgewicht
Welt

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Böhringer, Christoph
Löschel, Andreas
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)
(wo)
Mannheim
(wann)
2003

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
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Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Böhringer, Christoph
  • Löschel, Andreas
  • Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)

Entstanden

  • 2003

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