Testing for business cycle asymmetries based on autoregressions with a Markov-switching intercept

Arbeitspapier

In this paper, we investigate the implications of the two concepts of asymmetry defined by Sichel (1993) - deepness and steepness - for first-order autoregressive processes with a Markov-switching intercept. In order to do so, we derive the two required formulas determining the coefficient of skewness of first-order autoregressive processes with a Markov-switching intercept and the coefficient of skewness of the first differences of these processes. For the special case of two states, we present the parameter restrictions leading to non-deepness and non-steepness. We show that these restrictions imply that the conclusions of Clements & Krolzig (2003) with respect to asymmetries of processes with a Markov-switching intercept are not correct. Finally, we apply the results to U.S. GDP which is found to exhibit strongly significant deepness and steepness.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Discussion Paper Series 1 ; No. 2004,41

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes ; Hypothesis Testing: General
• Thema: asymmetry ; deepness ; steepness ; Markov-switching ; business cycles ; Zeitreihenanalyse ; Statistischer Test ; Konjunktur

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Knüppel, Malte
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Deutsche Bundesbank
• (wo): Frankfurt a. M.
• (wann): 2004

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19508
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ