Arbeitspapier

The strategy of manipulating conflict

Two decision-makers choose hawkish or dovish actions in a conflict game with incomplete information. The decision-making can be manipulated by extremists who send publicly observed cheap-talk messages. The power of extremists depends on the nature of the underlying conflict game. If actions are strategic complements, a hawkish extremist can increase the likelihood of conflict by sending messages which trigger a fear-spiral of hawkish actions. This reduces the welfare of both decision-makers. If actions are strategic substitutes, a dovish extremist (pacifist) can send messages which cause one decision-maker to back down and become more dovish. This reduces his welfare but benefits the other decision-maker. The hawkish extremist is unable to manipulate the decision-makers if actions are strategic substitutes, and the pacifist is equally powerless if actions are strategic complements.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Working Paper ; No. 2009-06

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Thema
global strategy
Politischer Konflikt
Politische Gewalt
Signalling
Spieltheorie
Theorie

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Baliga, Sandeep
Sjostrom, Tomas
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Rutgers University, Department of Economics
(wo)
New Brunswick, NJ
(wann)
2009

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ

Datenpartner

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Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Baliga, Sandeep
  • Sjostrom, Tomas
  • Rutgers University, Department of Economics

Entstanden

  • 2009

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